Space Tourism

Space Tourism has yet to get off the ground. Predictions by space companies and authoritative sources have expected that civilians would be flying to space by 2013, but that has yet to happen. Meanwhile design and testing continues on the rockets and rocket planes that are to take them there.

The Tauri Group has provided NASA and the space industry with predictions and performance reports for years. Their study on Space Tourism for Space Florida, conducted in 2012, appears to be the basis for the many predictions of growth report in that market segment.

The Space Tourism study was based on the responses of 226 individuals with a net worth over $5 million, and space enthusiasts with lower levels of net worth.  They estimate that there are about 2,400 US residents who would be willing to purchase a seat for between $95,000 and $200,000 and that 40% of them would actually fly over a 10 year period. The result is a baseline forecast of about 240 US residents per year. Additionally, researchers, film-makers, space enthusiasts and reward trips would slightly increase the forecast. Currently, the lowest price ticket has increased in price from $95,000 to $150,000 since the 2012 report. A robust market might increase the number of potential flyers to about 1,000 per year while a modest forecast is for around 200 seats. The 50% increase in ticket cost will probably reduce the number of likely participants.

 

There are presently spaceports licensed for horizontal rocket planes in New Mexico, California, Oklahoma, Houston, and Midland Texas. Using currently planned vehicles, only Blue Origin could operate from Spaceport Camden, however, they have committed to Canaveral. Sierra Nevada Corporation is developing a 7 passenger vertical launch Shuttle-like spacecraft that could launch from Camden but would have to land elsewhere.

 

The predictions of Space Tourism availability described in the 2012 Tauri/Space Florida study have not materialized. There are no operational vehicles, no passengers, and no revenue.

 

 

 

 

 

DISCLOSED SURVEY PARAMETERS

  1. Survey of 226 US individuals with greater than $5M in investable assets.

  2. Because survey results on hypothetical spending overstate willingness to purchase, used multiple questions to validate interest and likelihood of purchase.

  3. Based on survey, only 4% of high net worth individuals have ever spent $100K per person on leisure trip or experience.

  4. Interest in suborbital flight

    1. Extremely or very interested in taking a suborbital trip.

    2. Likely to purchase a suborbital trip (alone or in addition to other spaceflight options).

    3. Willingness to pay $100K or more for a suborbital trip.

    4. Ranked a suborbital trip highly compared to other options.

  5. Performed cross checks on total population determining likelihood of purchase.

    1. How much imagine spending (per person) on a once in a lifetime trip ($100K threshold).

    2. Most ever actually spent (per person) on a past trip ($50K threshold in baseline).

  6. Predicted demand based on survey results applied to global population with $5M+ net worth (~3,000,000).

  7. Additional 5% to account for demand from individuals with lower net worth.

  8. Estimated likelihood of flying in any given year based on 25 years per individual.

  9. Growth scenario relaxed past spending requirement, constrained scenario increased requirement.

 

All quoted data is single sourced from the Tauri Group.

Projections of the commercial space market include the currently non-existent Space Tourism. Is Spaceport Camden counting on Space Tourism to support the spaceport?

 

How many launches per year would be required to provide sufficient revenue?

 

Which Space Tourism operators have the financial resources to provide the necessary equity in a public-private partnership proposed by Camden officials?

 

Why are Camden officials pushing so hard for a State Law to reduce the laibility of Space Tourism companies when when the market does not yet exist, the vehicles do not exist, and we do not know who the spaceport opertor will be?